How to be convincing when you are uncertain
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How to be convincing by Matthew Leitch, 16 October 2003
In your job do you ever have to propose ideas? Most people do occasionally and it's a major part of some jobs. Many of us feel that when we do this we have no option but to pretend to be more certain than we really should be in order to make a strong case for our idea. We talk about the future as if we know what will happen. We gloss over assumptions and make no mention of un-substantiated guesses we are relying on. We take care to look confident that everything will be a success, just as we forecast.
I've done it and I know I'm far from being the only one. Unfortunately, there are two nasty problems with this strategy.
Firstly, we are taking on risks that we really should not take responsibility for. With most good ideas there is an element of uncertainty. That's unavoidable, even with the best management. Why should you take unconditional responsibility for success nobody could guarantee?
Secondly, not talking about uncertainties leads almost inevitably to not thinking about them and not managing them. It can go even further than that. For example, if someone suggests a change to what you propose that would manage risk the instinctive reaction is to fight the change, because to accept it would make you look unsure. The result of failing to manage risk and uncertainty is often failure.
Fortunately, there is an alternative. You can look convincing even when you are uncertain, without the problems of pretending to be certain.
I recently asked the formidable project management guru, Tom Gilb, what offended him most, uncertainty or its concealment. "Concealment, definitely concealment" he replied. Is there another rational answer? I don't think so and neither do most senior executives.
That's not to say they act in accordance with this belief. Clues from their body language and conversation through to formal management systems like budgeting scream at us that uncertainty is not acceptable. It takes good technique and nerve to avoid the usual trap.
People who are experienced and competent are much better at talking about uncertainties than people who are not. The key to being convincing even when you are talking openly about uncertainties is to say things a bluffer could not. Here are some ideas:
Make it clear when uncertainty is unavoidable. It may be unavoidable whatever you do, or just unavoidable at this stage in your work, but be confident about your uncertainty.
Examples:
"Clearly we can't be certain if the sponsors will agree to this proposal."
"As with any new product there's great uncertainty about how much we can sell, and how quickly sales will grow."
Show you've been thinking widely and used your knowledge. When you mention possible future events and their implications that are important but not obvious you command respect. "Here is someone I must listen to." people will think. What you are showing is sometimes called "situational awareness."
Examples:
"If we supply goods in this way it may change their VAT treatment, and that's something we need to check."
"And another point there is that we may not currently be capturing enough information at the point of sale to do this."
"There's a new EU Directive that could have significant implications for us, depending on how it is implemented in different countries. It may be that we have to make the change I am proposing in order to comply."
"The short term impact of this launch is almost certain to be increased sales and profits, but we need to consider the risk of eroding our main positioning through this line extension."
Show experience, if you have it. When you mention things that might happen you can refer to past occasions when you've seen exactly what you are talking about, or something similar.
Examples:
"BigCo of course dominates this market and their reaction is crucial. In the past we've seen them crush competitive moves aggressively, even anti-competitively, but we've also seen that they have blindspots and can be very slow to react."
"One of the reasons I'm proposing this strategy is that if we don't do this we'll have to replace the sales order system some time next year anyway, and without the simplified pricing scheme we could struggle. Think back to 1997 and that's exactly what happened to us in Germany."
Show a sense of responsibility. When you mention things that might happen and could affect the outcome of adopting the idea you are proposing you are showing concern for the interests of others.
Examples:
"I know that one of your key concerns is to maintain our good relations with BigCustomer plc. Although it would be inappropriate at this stage to discuss the idea with them to get their reaction, we have done a lot of work to analyse how this will look to them, and how their interests might be affected, negatively as well as positively."
"By doing this project in the stages I've outlined we keep our exposure low throughout."
"If a bad customer reaction occurred at this point we would be in big trouble and it could affect other products too. Although we're not expecting such a reaction it is still a significant possibility with a fashion product like this so we've devised a plan that reduces the impact of such a reversal."
Have things you can do where possible, even if you have not done them yet. It is vital to show you have ideas for managing the risk and uncertainty you highlight. If there are uncertainties about the outcome of your proposal that may be unavoidable it is helpful to show you have considered this and the impact for other people. You may even be able to suggest reasonable actions others can take to manage the uncertainty arising from your idea.
Examples:
"We're at an early stage in researching this idea and the next stage will be some testing using a simple prototype."
"Even once we've done all the research and analysis we can I think there will still be plenty of scope for surprising outcomes, as with any project like this. We've devised a plan with 7 primary methods of managing those outcomes and I'd like to spend a few minutes explaining them."
"The schedule risk of this project is being managed and tracked using time buffers. It's much more like a relay race than a train schedule, with everyone encouraged to start work as early as they can. I'm fairly confident that we'll complete by 30th June. However, it could be earlier, and possibly could be later. I'll keep you updated weekly on the latest projections and I know you guys are keen to start your part earlier if possible."
Identify your evidence. Saying where your evidence comes from, even if it is simply someone's subjective estimate, helps listeners understand uncertainty.
Examples:
"A survey of 120 companies by Gartner last year showed that 23% had experienced some kind of incident of this type. Our company is similar to those in that sample, so this is a useful guide."
"There's no hard data to rely on for this so I've taken the average estimate from three senior marketing managers."
"I've done a project like this before and, although this one is more complex than my previous experience, my judgement is that 20% is conservative."
Say as much as you can. Just saying you have no idea what the result will be is not helpful. If you can say more, do so. For example, you might mention a range, the most likely result, or perhaps a range within which the result is 90% or 60% likely to fall.
Examples:
"We're 70% certain this investment will at least break even."
"After getting estimates from several people in sales, finance, and marketing, and comparing those with the actual results from similar products we're estimating that the most likely level of sales is about 2m units a month after 1 year. But to give you an idea of the uncertainty there we're 90% sure sales will be between 1.2m and 2.6m units."
"Although we can't be sure how customers will react it's far more likely that they will be pleased with the new flavours than reject them, based on testing so far."
Don't be a pessimist; look at upside risks too. Try to be objective. Often when people talk about risks and uncertainties they think only of things that might go wrong. This is not objective because it systematically ignores things that might go better than expected. Make sure you talk about what should be done if things start going better than expected.
Examples:
"On the other hand if the weather is good this summer it's possible we may need to increase capacity so I've looked at some options for doing that."
"On the whole I think it's more likely that the quality of the creative work we get back will be poor, but if it turns out to be surprisingly good it may be worth being more ambitious and spending more to make use of it."
Don't overwhelm with worries, unless you want to. I used to work with a man who was great at killing off bad ideas. "The trouble is..." he would say, and then go through a seemingly endless list of risks and their potential impacts. Even when none of his objections was fatal he often bored people into submission. If that's what you want to do, fine, but don't do it by accident.
Don't take too long. Glib certainty is briefer than realism. Be careful to keep at the right level and don't talk for too long. Let people know straight away that you are going to talk about areas of uncertainty and what can be done to manage them, and that you will cover unexpected levels of success as well as what could go wrong.
Examples:
"I'm not going to go through it all in detail, but in the pack you'll find an analysis of the evidence that went into the forecast, plus analysis of our options under various potential outcomes, both better and worse than expected."
"We identified seven major areas of uncertainty, and six more less important ones. I'm just going to give you an overview of the major areas."
"This project involves some extreme uncertainties and to list them all would be tiresome. What I want to do is explain how we can achieve the flexibility and responsiveness we need to survive in this ferocious market."
Be confident in your analysis. Although you are talking about uncertainties you can still be confident that your analysis is professional, and so your manner should be firm and confident.
My personal experience of talking about risks and uncertainties is that people respect genuine expertise. They feel safer with someone who seems to have a true understanding of the situation, provided that person also has sensible actions to propose.
However, sometimes there are awkward moments and some senior managers do not have a rational attitude to uncertainty. How do you cope under that pressure?
Where you're seen as negative and unhelpful. This can happen if you've forgotten to tell people you will cover upside risks too, or haven't mentioned actions, or have spent too long dwelling on negative details. If this is what has happened recover by doing the thing you should have done.
Examples:
"Sorry, I should have said that I'll be covering our options if sales rise faster than expected in a few moments."
"I understand why this looks unattractive at this point, but if you'll just let me finish I think you'll see how we can in fact manage those issues and position ourselves if this market really takes off, which it still can."
The black and white thinker who doesn't understand uncertainty. Some people just don't get it. They want everything to be black and white. Yes or No but not Maybe. The plan either will work or it won't. To them there are no degrees, and certainly no uncertainty! I personally find this very frustrating. If you know you will be explaining your idea to someone like this take special care to be quick and confident in your presentation, and stress the management actions available. Assertive people like assertive people, so push back and be confident your uncertainty is justified.
You might have got support but didn't. Imagine you follow this advice but your idea is rejected anyway. You wonder if you might have got a different result if you had not been so honest. How much does that matter? You may not have got backing for your idea, but perhaps you impressed with your professionalism. Success and getting your idea accepted are not the same thing. There may have been other factors you did not know about, perhaps the wrong decision was made, or perhaps, just maybe, the idea was not good enough. Gain credibility by showing your ability and it will help you next time.
The bigger the idea the more important it is to be open about uncertainty and the more patience people have for a professional analysis. But if you're not sure you can trust yourself to carry it off start small and make sure you have a solid technique for when you really need it. The penalties for suppressing uncertainty include failure, loss of credibility, and stress. It's well worth becoming aware of uncertainty suppression and learning not to do it.
A related paper on Managed Luck is "How to talk openly about uncertainty at work."
Another interesting read is “Embracing uncertainty: the essence of leadership”, by Phillip G Clampitt, Robert J DeKoch, and M E Sharpe, 2001. The authors have a handy overview of their book, free on the web. Click here. They also have various papers on uncertainty suppression and uncertainty communication on their "Other Publications" page.
About the author: Matthew Leitch is an independent consultant and researcher specialising in internal control and risk management. He is a Chartered Accountant with a degree in psychology whose past career includes software development, marketing, auditing, accounting, and consulting. He spent 7 years as a controls specialist with PricewaterhouseCoopers, where he pioneered new methods for designing internal control systems for large scale business and financial processes, through projects for internationally known clients.
Contact the author at: matthew@managedluck.co.uk
Words © 2003 Matthew Leitch| Home / more articles - The author - Contact on your terms - Feedback - Ask a question - Links - Services |